General / Off-Topic The safest place

We're running at twice the previous average deaths/day and cases/day. Delta cases are expanding.
But the government is revoking the State of Emergency, likely by Wednesday. They seem unmoved by the math, infectivity data, and the past histories of every other country that tried that.

I guess if you are unvaccinated now, that's simply going to be your problem. Our health service is still segregated into Non-Covid standard care, and separate pandemic facilities. Those are full, but spaces are opening up faster!
 
The weather guys said this was going to be the last good day of the year.

So, I started it by going to the proctologist. Very efficient guy.

Good news: No malignancies, and no need for a colonoscopy.

Not so great news: My hemmeroids got "banded off". Short, efficient, outpatient treatment. It just means endless days of being within six meters of facilities. Eating fiber. Four to six weeks recovery time. No lifting, obviously. No major issues, post procedure. Just sheer annoyance. Almost as bad as the Oddy release. Had to spend the perfect day flat.
 
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And this is what happenned as soon as they lifted the curfews, opened the bars, and ended the State of Emergency. This isn't going to end well.
 
So today our Principal Medical Officer(Institutions) was put on the Board of Directors of the Angostura Liquor Company, where she will also be in charge of making rum.

Yes, the same person running the hospitals, will be supplying the rum.
Totally no conflict of interest. Also, probably a sign of what we need to do.

STORY:

Angostura-
 

K, that looks bad.
South African scientists have detected 30 mutations to the spike protein, the part of the virus that binds to cells in the body, which could have implications for vaccine efficacy and transmissibility.

Gautama has it outrunning Delta.
90% of cases in Gauteng may already be this variant and it "may already be present in most provinces"
-BBC

Greek letter designation expected by tomorrow.


Our PM is addressing the nation tonight.
Nursing Care homes for the elderly are now in lockdown again, on instruction from Health Ministry.
Case count is approaching double the top of the last peak, nearly 800/day. We have an unusual case cluster in young children and babies. The commercial sector has been squeezed dry and the want Christmas sales, so there's an insane business push to drop all non medical precautions, same as everywhere else.

Most of the other doctors have stopped duties at my centre. They're calling it "leave". I've seen this before, in 1990, during the revolution, when there was personal risk, people just evaporate.

I'm getting gloomy about this.
 

K, that looks bad.


Gautama has it outrunning Delta.
-BBC

Greek letter designation expected by tomorrow.


Our PM is addressing the nation tonight.
Nursing Care homes for the elderly are now in lockdown again, on instruction from Health Ministry.
Case count is approaching double the top of the last peak, nearly 800/day. We have an unusual case cluster in young children and babies. The commercial sector has been squeezed dry and the want Christmas sales, so there's an insane business push to drop all non medical precautions, same as everywhere else.

Most of the other doctors have stopped duties at my centre. They're calling it "leave". I've seen this before, in 1990, during the revolution, when there was personal risk, people just evaporate.

I'm getting gloomy about this.
Changes to the spike protein are very worrying from my limited understanding of how the vaccines work. The vaccines that work are all based on training the immune system to recognise and destroy them.

I expect all the working vaccines can be adapted to target changes to the spike protein but they need to be modified and rolled out fast enough. Most of the world hasn’t been vaccinated against the variants the current vaccines work with.

In countries that have like the U.K. it seems you reach a point of acceptance rapidly and some people just won’t have it. The worst thing about it is as the threat level dissipates the acceptance level seems to decrease.

One of my brothers has gone all vaccine skeptical and is not sure about getting a booster jab because “things aren’t so bad as they said they might be and there is no long term data”. Obviously that’s because of the vaccines but with social media and the like… I’ll make sure he gets that booster but if lots of people think like him (and they will) going endemic is going to be challenging 😥
 
COVID-19 is here to stay.
Yeah that’s the way I see it. In the U.K. we have built vaccine hubs all over the place. I’ve booked my 2nd booster jab for January and I expect to be booking a booster around every 6 months for the rest of my life… unless COVID-19 burns itself out into a cold.
 
Yeah that’s the way I see it. In the U.K. we have built vaccine hubs all over the place. I’ve booked my 2nd booster jab for January and I expect to be booking a booster around every 6 months for the rest of my life… unless COVID-19 burns itself out into a cold.
Might as well call it COVID-
 
PA MEDIA
Travellers arriving in England from several southern African countries will have to quarantine amid warnings over a new coronavirus variant.
UK Health Secretary Sajid Javid said from 12:00 GMT on Friday six countries would be added to the red list, with flights being temporarily banned.
One expert described the variant, known as B.1.1.529, as "the worst one we've seen so far", and there is concern it has the potential to evade immunity.

Looks like they are taking it very seriously. Although we need more evidence to get really concerned. It has to actually spread faster and cause trouble too.


On the B.1.1529 lineage in Botswana:

Prof Ravi Gupta, Professor of Clinical Microbiology, University of Cambridge, said:

“B.1.1.529 has signatures of cumulative mutation indicating that it emerged in a chronic infection.
Second time this has happened in SA, because it has both a terrible vaccination rate and the highest number of HIV positive people in the world. SARS Cov 2 will keep replicating for weeks or months in a host with immune compromise, and that is where the mutations emerge, as they compete within the same body.

Nobody seems to have learned anything. If you don't mandate vaccines, this is what we are going to get. SA HAD stocks of O-AZ in the beginning, and they opted foolishly not to use it.

If we don't supply vaccines to places like Botswana, or India - it will happen there and then we all have to cope with Delta de novo.

I've been waiting for this story to break and really thought it was going to be in Russia this time. It is going to Russia, certainly, as we have seen, as variants go everywhere though it can take awhile. Everybody now has the same problem, isn't sharing great?
 
Epidemiologist Eric Feigl-Ding:
My god—the new #B11259 variant being possibly ~500% more competitively infectious is the most staggering stat yet. Also, #NuVariant has more than >2x the number of bad spike mutations than Delta. Here’s an updated...

European countries have started their travel bans. It's already in Hong Kong and Israel though, so it can vector in from unbanned sources. Likely already present, given the incredible level of infectivity.

Although detected in South Africa first, it might have originated elsewhere where there isn't sequencing tech available, possibly Botswana, where a very high HIV prevalence is present.

Given that Delta approaches Chickenpox for infectivity, there will be NO controlling of B.1.1.529 by lockdowns, masks, handwashings etc. This is loose on the African continent, which is >90% unvaccinated, and has little advanced capacity in ICUs. So expect more mutations going forward, because of widespread HIV patients.

Either we mandate the existing vaccines for the populations now and get prepared, or it is going to burn through antivaxxers like a blowtorch.
 
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