General / Off-Topic The safest place

We now know that the average duration of the Covid-19 disease is ~14 days on average. After 14 days, on average, a patient has either recovered or died. Using that knowledge, we can subtract those patients from the number of cumulated recorded cases. When doing so, using data from JHU, we get the following development of the number of current cases:

1591008575951.png


The x-axis is days from January 1st, and the y-axis is number of current cases. The graph shows a similar trend if the duration of the disease is estimated to 7 or 21 days.

Currently, the majority of registered new cases are mainly in US, Brazil, Russia, Peru and India. On top of that, there seems to be many other countries where the virus is still spreading fast, but where lack of testing equipment leads to underestimating the actual number of cases. The US can be expected to see a new surge in a couple of weeks due to the high number of close contacts during the demonstrations.

There does not seem to be any significant effect of higher temperatures or more UV light (summer) with the virus spreading fast in Brazil and India. It seems that the main spread in Europe has been causes by large gatherings like concerts and sports events. Don't expect those to open up in the foreseeable future.

The highest rate of immunity I've seen so far is NYC, where roughly 20% or slightly more are expected to be immune. In the EU that number is closer to 5%. This means that we are still in the middle of a pandemic, and we haven't even seen the peak yet. Even if we very optimistically estimate the global immunity to be 15%, then at least 45% more will have to get infected before seeing any positive effects of herd immunity.

It seems that most governments aim towards herd immunity, even though most countries have different official strategies. If herd immunity is the goal, 60-90% of the global population is going to get infected in the coming months. It's difficult to say how long this will last, because closing down to try to avoid collapse of the hospitals flattens the curve, meaning that that duration of the pandemic increases. I'm not saying that governments lie to cheat their populations, but they do use a lot of spin to keep spririts high, and even though they want their population to stay alive, this situation does not leave room for considering the individual. That is up to you, and only you.

The fatality rate seems to be 1-2% of all infections including asymptomatic cases. That is at least 10-20 times more deadly than the average flu.

Stay safe! Remember to wash your hands often, and avoid close contact. A mask is not a guarantee not to get infected, but it lowers the risk of infecting susceptibles once you're infected, and you might not know when that happens. If you have symptoms, stay away from other people. If you are helping or nursing a patient, be extremely cautious.
 
June first.
Happy Hurricane Season, everyone! 🥳


While the viral ancestor in the bat is the most closely related coronavirus to SARS-CoV-2, its binding site is very different, and on its own cannot efficiently infect human cells.
SARS-CoV-2 appears to be a hybrid between bat and pangolin viruses to obtain the "key" necessary receptor-binding site for human infection.
It would seem that an animal host infected with 2 different viruses at the same time caused gene transfer.
That would explain the original e protein bat virus envelope being conserved with no evolutionary changes at all, and a novel S - protein spike being added.

If you can imagine a cell trying to copy both viruses at the same time, an error can give a chimera.

So there was gene transfer, but we have a plausible natural mechanism.
 
We now know that the average duration of the Covid-19 disease is ~14 days on average. After 14 days, on average, a patient has either recovered or died. Using that knowledge, we can subtract those patients from the number of cumulated recorded cases. When doing so, using data from JHU, we get the following development of the number of current cases:

View attachment 175145

The x-axis is days from January 1st, and the y-axis is number of current cases. The graph shows a similar trend if the duration of the disease is estimated to 7 or 21 days.

Currently, the majority of registered new cases are mainly in US, Brazil, Russia, Peru and India. On top of that, there seems to be many other countries where the virus is still spreading fast, but where lack of testing equipment leads to underestimating the actual number of cases. The US can be expected to see a new surge in a couple of weeks due to the high number of close contacts during the demonstrations.

There does not seem to be any significant effect of higher temperatures or more UV light (summer) with the virus spreading fast in Brazil and India. It seems that the main spread in Europe has been causes by large gatherings like concerts and sports events. Don't expect those to open up in the foreseeable future.

The highest rate of immunity I've seen so far is NYC, where roughly 20% or slightly more are expected to be immune. In the EU that number is closer to 5%. This means that we are still in the middle of a pandemic, and we haven't even seen the peak yet. Even if we very optimistically estimate the global immunity to be 15%, then at least 45% more will have to get infected before seeing any positive effects of herd immunity.

It seems that most governments aim towards herd immunity, even though most countries have different official strategies. If herd immunity is the goal, 60-90% of the global population is going to get infected in the coming months. It's difficult to say how long this will last, because closing down to try to avoid collapse of the hospitals flattens the curve, meaning that that duration of the pandemic increases. I'm not saying that governments lie to cheat their populations, but they do use a lot of spin to keep spririts high, and even though they want their population to stay alive, this situation does not leave room for considering the individual. That is up to you, and only you.

The fatality rate seems to be 1-2% of all infections including asymptomatic cases. That is at least 10-20 times more deadly than the average flu.

Stay safe! Remember to wash your hands often, and avoid close contact. A mask is not a guarantee not to get infected, but it lowers the risk of infecting susceptibles once you're infected, and you might not know when that happens. If you have symptoms, stay away from other people. If you are helping or nursing a patient, be extremely cautious.
A lucid post here.

I wonder if this virus will hit harder in the future.

Maybe for now he’s playing nice.

🦠 🦠 🦠 🦠 🦠 🦠 🦠 🦠 😷
 
Got called out in the night.
No facemasks at the centre, again. This is getting old. Do we really need masks though? The loss of visibility, and the muffling of sound are disadvantageous.
What if something else worked?


According to the Iowa team, large-scale studies haven't yet been conducted. But "in a simulation study, face shields were shown to reduce immediate viral exposure by 96% when worn by a simulated health care worker within 18 inches of a cough."
"When the study was repeated at the currently recommended physical distancing distance of 6 feet, face shields reduced inhaled virus by 92%," the authors said.

92% with no filter is frankly amazing. Hard to believe even.
Making a shield is elementary, no reason why anybody should not have one. It takes 4 minutes to do.

I have a few in the car, various sizes, all made from soda bottles. To prevent injuries, you would need to cover up the edges of the cut bottles. Easiest thing is electrical tape. I have scrap oxygen tubing edging some of my shields, which is quite comfortable. Supplied the CCU with a few, but nobody there uses them.

Decontaminating it is as easy as blasting it with soapy water from a squirty spray bottle. I have one of those in the kit in the trunk, to spray off shoes, and other gear before entering the car.
 
a little off topic ... I'm surprised that no American considers his government's measures authoritarian ... when until a few months ago they criticized the repression in the Hong Kong protests. Military in the streets? I thought that only happened in communist countries.
 
a little off topic ... I'm surprised that no American considers his government's measures authoritarian ... when until a few months ago they criticized the repression in the Hong Kong protests. Military in the streets? I thought that only happened in communist countries.
Probably occupied in their echo chambers.
 
Started catching up on things again today, after I had to take my head out of all this for health and sanity for a while . Now I am very surprised about (to me) new Information about a propsed "strategy shift" towards bigger focus on stopping superspreading ( alongside other measures ) . It seems to be thought possible that control of the Virus will/may be possible without many of the very restrictive measures most of us lived through by now .

I think the following article explains it rather well :

 
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a little off topic ... I'm surprised that no American considers his government's measures authoritarian ... when until a few months ago they criticized the repression in the Hong Kong protests. Military in the streets? I thought that only happened in communist countries.
From The Guardian today:

“When fascism comes to America, it will be wrapped in the flag and carrying a cross,” goes an oft-quoted line of uncertain origin.

Worried for our USA friends...
 
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