Expansions: BGS Guide Best Current Thinking

I am going to call the choice of system to expand from officially broken. At least for us.
We had a few issues recently when the FC update dropped, and put it down to edge case/update day SNAFU, however we are now in stable regular mode and its still not "obeying" perceived wisdom.

On 2020-09-12 we had several systems over 75% including Arine and Col 285 Sector XF-N c7-20 : Arine went into Pending Expansion and was successfull.
On 2020-09-25 we had several systems over 75% including Arine and Col 285 Sector XF-N c7-20 : Col 285 Sector XF-N c7-20 went into Pending Expansion

They both have regular short range expansions available.
Thats not how it is "supposed to work" and makes planning irrelevant.
 
I got a question. What's the record for the long range expansion from a system? 40+ LYs?
The maximum possible range in ideal circumstances is 51.96 LY

The expansion cube for an extended range expansion is 60 LY sides, so 30 LY each way centred on the source system. If the destination was exactly 30 LY away on each axis, it would be 51.96 LY away.

(If you mean the record for the longest expansion actually carried out, rather than the limit of what is possible, not sure ... almost certainly over 40 LY though)
 
Everything that I have read so far, states that a faction cannot enter into an expansion state until +75% influence. Is this no longer the case? I have witnessed a faction at 27% influence, enter into expansion with today's tick.
 
...and today a system went pending expansion while on 73.2%. Has not been over 75% since 30th October.

Might as well close all threads with Expansion advice.
Most of what I have read, and what is actually happening in-game, is drastically different, despite many assurances from the community that things are working as intended.
 
Everything that I have read so far, states that a faction cannot enter into an expansion state until +75% influence. Is this no longer the case? I have witnessed a faction at 27% influence, enter into expansion with today's tick.
Expansion is a global state, so the faction only needs to be present in one system at >75%, and then it gets expansion marked everywhere but only expands from the system it first reached 75% in (which can be discovered from station local news). If multiple systems reach 75% at once, the tie breaker is basically "whichever ticks first"

Additionally, Expansion has a 5 day pending period, so if a faction reaches the expansion threshold and then drops rapidly, it could potentially - at least in some circumstances - be as low as 27% in the expansion source system by the time the state went from pending to active. Unlike some other states, it only needs to briefly cross the threshold to go pending, and then the future influence is irrelevant. (This isn't the most likely explanation for what's happened here, but it is possible)

Most of what I have read, and what is actually happening in-game, is drastically different, despite many assurances from the community that things are working as intended.
Heh, I don't think any of us could confidently claim "working as intended". But there is a solid shared model of how most [1] of the political BGS works that its current behaviour is still largely reliably following, whether that's how Frontier intended it to work or not. Unfortunately that model is not written down in any single place, at least not in public, and most of the public sources contain at least some errors.

[1] The answers to questions like "what causes Blight?" or "how exactly do negative actions affect influence redistribution?" or "what is the relative weighting of the obvious War actions?" are less well understood, because they are for various reasons much harder to experiment on.
 
but only expands from the system it first reached 75% in (which can be discovered from station local news). If multiple systems reach 75% at once, the tie breaker is basically "whichever ticks first"
that does not match what we are seeing currently :-/
...and today a system went pending expansion while on 73.2%. Has not been over 75% since 30th October.
to me it looks as if cueing expansions is back, means, when multiple systems are above 75%, one expansions gets pending (as described above - "random"); the others start waiting in cue. that is a restricted perspective though (we just have those 70 systems to back it up, and not all get updated daily).

note, that we haven't expanded from a system a second time directly since Fc update, despite having same systems even over 75% after expansion (e.g. since expansion tax is back). we had a system expanding a second time since FC update recently (which should have been on the naughty list since years, but hey), and as we are expanding every 14 days since FC update, that's a bunch of expansions by now which don't fit that model.

so - somehow the game has changed since FC update on expansion. only on expansion sequence though.
 
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Most of what I have read, and what is actually happening in-game, is drastically different, despite many assurances from the community that things are working as intended.
i don't know of many playing the BGS saying "working as intended".
i read "our experience is" or "it is supposed to work like that (dev quote)".
the number of dev-quote backed mechanics is finite, the rest is poking at the blackbox.

now - if you want to make a faction expanding, it is simple: push it over 75% in one system. it gets expansion pending, during the pending and active time it can win or loose influence, it will expand. that works. and matches how fdev describes their system.

you can even predict relieable, where it will expand to, once the expansion is active (the only unknown currently there is afaik, how it currently handles permits and controlling faction invasions). fdevs "expansion range" has been understood by amazing work of commanders, as it isn't a radius.

it is currently unclear (to us), which system will expand if you have several systems around 75%. it doesn't work as we expect it to work (backed by experience and some dev quotes)

that is all. not working as intended, but "to a larger extend working as expected".
 
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Its not Who Ticks First as explain by Dav pre FC.
Its probably not random. We have had enough cycles where "random" would probably have chosen a system twice.
It could be queued by "who gets to 75% first", but a poke in our history suggests not unless there are many other caveats - A lot of work to disprove it properly.
It could be an invisible "Expandability" bucket as FD suggested would be the purpose of Happiness that is filled by CMDR Actions and drained by Expansion
 

Jane Turner

Volunteer Moderator
Interesting, we have a very predictable priority sequence ie one system is always the expansion centre if it and another are over 75, and we've worked our way down to about 6th in the sequence. We also have systems that can be about 75 for months at a time and only expand if they are the only one in that state.
 
Source is now "officially" based on happiness. Fairly sure its not true, but can at least use it as the basis for a bug report when I have evidence it isnt.

A faction's eligible for expansion if it's over 75% influence in any given system that doesn't have a conflict active within it. A faction can only have one expansion at once, no matter how many systems its present in. If multiple systems are eligible, then it chooses the one with the highest happiness.

 
New rule seemed worked. We expanded from an Elated system over 75% with no other conflict active.
Sample Size of 1 : Science FTW !

Was hoping to have a bit more data, but we went from having 0 x Elated over 75% before the tick to 9 x Elated after the tick (we only pushed 2 systems). Will make predictions hard if Happiness flip flops that much.
 
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