That's not how real life works. Which I'd guess is why you are here moaning about a refund to strangers on the internet, rather than talking to the people who could actually give you one. I'm guessing your predictive powers were not taken as sufficiently persuasive by FDEV.I did already cover your points. It is possible to make educated predictions of likely future behaviour based on existing information.
There isn't enough information (for me), the OP goes into why this is.